Infectious Disease Modelling Group

2025

• Real-time monitoring of excess mortality under a new endemic regime
  Kandula S, de Blasio BF, LeBlanc M.
  Eurosurveillance, 2025. 30(25), pii=2400753.
  

• Estimating the trend of COVID-19 in Norway by combining multiple surveillance indicators
  Rø G, Lyngstad TM, Seppälä E, Nærland Skodvin S, Trogstad L, White RA, Paulsen A, Hessevik Paulsen T, Skogset Ofitserova T, Langlete P, Madslien EH, Nygård K, de Blasio BF
  PLOS One, 2025. 20(1), p.e0317105.
  

• A multi-model approach to estimate excess mortality in the Nordics, 2020–2023
  Kandula S, Kristoffersen AB, Rø G, LeBlanc M, de Blasio BF.
  Public Health, 2025. 242(6), pp.131-138.
  

• Municipality assessment of temperature-related mortality risks in Norway.
  Fernández LV, Palomares ADL, Vicedo-Cabrera AM, Gasparrini A, de Blasio BF, Di Ruscio F, Masselot P, Wisløff T, Rao-Skirbekk S
  Environmental research, 2025. 266, p.120614.
  

2024

• Modeling geographic vaccination strategies for COVID-19 in Norway.
  Chan LY, Rø G, Midtbø JE, Di Ruscio F, Watle SS, Juvet LK, Littmann J, Aavitsland P, Nygard KM, Berg AS, Bukholm G, Kristoffersen AB, Engø-Monsen K, Engebretsen S, Swanson D, Diz-Lois Palomares A, Lindstrøm JC, Frigessi A, de Blasio BF
  PLOS Computational Biology. 20(1): e1011426
  

• Monitoring Progress Towards the Elimination of Hepatitis C as a Public Health Threat in Norway: A Modelling Study Among People Who Inject Drugs and Immigrants.
  Robert Whittaker, Jørgen E Midtbø, Hilde Kløvstad
  The Journal of Infectious Diseases, Volume 230, Issue 3, 15 September 2024, Pages e700–e711
  

• Spatial and demographic heterogeneity in excess mortality in the United States, 2020-2023: a multi-model approach
  Sasikiran Kandula, Anja Bråthen Kristoffersen, Gunnar Rø, Marissa LeBlanc, Birgitte Freiesleben de Blasio
  American Journal of Epidemiology, 2024.
  

• The influence of cross-border mobility on the COVID-19 epidemic in Nordic countries
  Mikhail Shubin, Hilde Kjelgaard Brustad, Jørgen Eriksson Midtbø, Felix Günther, Laura Alessandretti, Tapio Ala-Nissila,Gianpaolo Scalia Tomba, Mikko Kivelä, Louis Yat Hin Chan, Lasse Leskelä
  PLOS Computational Biology, 2024.
  

2023

• Antibiotic Consumption in a Cohort of Hospitalized Adults with Viral Respiratory Tract Infection.
  Debes S, Haug JB, de Blasio BF, Lindstrøm JC, Jonassen CM, Dudman SG.
  Antibiotics. 2023 Apr 20;12(4):788.
  

• A real-time regional model for COVID-19: Probabilistic situational awareness and forecasting.
  Engebretsen S, Diz-Lois Palomares A, Rø G, Kristoffersen AB, Lindstrøm JC, Engø-Monsen K, Kamineni M, Chan YH, Dale Ø, Midtbø JE, Stenerud KL, Di Ruscio F, White R, Frigessi A, de Blasio BF
  PLOS Computational Biology. 2023 Jan 23;19(1):e1010860
  

• Effects of non-compulsory and mandatory COVID-19 interventions on travel distance and time away from home, Norway, 2021
  Kamineni M, Engø-Monsen K, Midtbø JE, Forland F, de Blasio BF, Frigessi A, Engebretsen S.
  Eurosurveillance. 2023 Apr 27;28(17):2200382
  

• A sequential Monte Carlo approach to estimate a time-varying reproduction number in infectious disease models: the Covid-19 case
  Storvik G, Diz-Lois Palomares A, Engebretsen S, Rø GØ, Engø-Monsen K, Kristoffersen AB, de Blasio BF, Frigessi A
  Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A: Statistics in Society. 2023 Oct;186(4):616-32.
  

2022

• Increased household transmission and immune escape of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron compared to Delta variants.
  Jalali N, Brustad HK, Frigessi A, MacDonald EA, Meijerink H, Feruglio SL, Nygård KM, Rø G, Madslien EH, de Blasio BF.
  Nature Communications. 2022 Sep 29;13(1):5706.
  

• Visiting crowded places during the COVID-19 pandemic. A panel study among adult Norwegians.
  Aarø LE, Veneti L, Vedaa Ø, Smith OR, de Blasio BF, Robberstad B.
  Frontiers in Public Health. 2022 Dec 15;10:1076090.
  

• Mucosal Gene Transcript Signatures in Treatment Naive Inflammatory Bowel Disease: A Comparative Analysis of Disease to Symptomatic and Healthy Controls in the European IBD-Character Cohort.
  Vatn SS, Lindstrom JC, Moen AEF, Brackmann S, Tannæs TM, Olbjorn C, et al.
  Clinical and Experimental Gastroenterology. 2022;15:5-25.
  

• Molecular epidemiology and antibiotic resistance profiles of invasive Haemophilus influenzae from Norway 2017-2021.
  Tonnessen R, Garcia I, Debech N, Lindstrom JC, Wester AL, Skaare D.
  Frontiers in Microbiology. 2022;13.
  

• Pertussis epidemiology including direct and indirect effects of the childhood pertussis booster vaccinations, Norway, 1998-2019
  Seppala E, Kristoffersen AB, Boas H, Vestrheim DF, Greve-Isdahl M, de Blasio BF, et al.
  Vaccine. 2022;40(23):3142-9.
  

• Increased transmissibility of the alpha SARS-CoV-2 variant: evidence from contact tracing data in Oslo, January to February 2021.
  Lindstrom JC, Engebretsen S, Kristoffersen AB, Rø GOI, Palomares ADL, Engo-Monsen K, […], de Blasio, B. F.
  Infectious Diseases. 2022;54(1):72-7.
  

• A compelling demonstration of why traditional statistical regression models cannot be used to identify risk factors from case data on infectious diseases: a simulation study.
  Engebretsen S, Rø G, de Blasio BF.
  Bmc Medical Research Methodology. 2022;22(1).
  

• Assessment of Coronavirus Disease 2019 Intervention Strategies in the Nordic Countries Using Genomic Epidemiology.
  Duchene S, Featherstone L, de Blasio BF, Holmes EC, Bohlin J, Pettersson JHO.
  Open Forum Infectious Diseases. 2022;9(3).
  

• Clinical Outcome of Viral Respiratory Tract Infections in Hospitalized Adults in Norway: High Degree of Inflammation and Need of Emergency Care for Cases With Respiratory Syncytial Virus.
  Debes S, Haug JB, de Blasio BF, Lindstrom JC, Jonassen CM, Dudman SG.
  Frontiers in Medicine. 2022;9.
  

• Simulation and identification of foodborne outbreaks in a large supermarket consumer purchase dataset.
  Dougherty PE, Møller FT, Ethelberg S, Rø GØ, Jore S.
  Scientific Reports. 2022 Jul 7;12(1):11491.
  

• A One Health real-time surveillance system for nowcasting Campylobacter gastrointestinal illness outbreaks, Norway, week 30 2010 to week 11 2022.
  Swanson D, Koren C, Hopp P, Jonsson ME, Rø GI, White RA, Grøneng GM.
  EuroSurveillance. 2022 Oct 27;27(43):2101121.
  

• Prevalence of antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 in the Norwegian population, August 2021.
  Tunheim G, Rø GØ, Chopra A, Aase A, Kran AM, Vaage JT, Lund-Johansen F, Hungnes O.
  Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses. 2022 Nov;16(6):1004-13.
  

• Age and product dependent vaccine effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2 infection and hospitalisation among adults in Norway: a national cohort study, July–November 2021.
  Starrfelt J, Danielsen AS, Buanes EA, Juvet LK, Lyngstad TM, Rø GØ, Veneti L, Watle SV, Meijerink H.
  BMC medicine. 2022 Dec;20(1):1-1.
  

• Reduced risk of hospitalisation among reported COVID-19 cases infected with the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA. 1 variant compared with the Delta variant, Norway, December 2021 to January 2022.
  Veneti L, Bøås H, Kristoffersen AB, Stålcrantz J, Bragstad K, Hungnes O, Storm ML, Aasand N, Rø G, Starrfelt J, Seppälä E.
  Eurosurveillance. 2022 Jan 27;27(4):2200077.
  

• Coarse particulate air pollution and daily mortality: a global study in 205 cities.
  Liu C, Cai J, Chen R, Sera F, Guo Y, Tong S, Li S, Lavigne E, Correa PM, Ortega NV, Orru H, […], Diz-Lois Palomares A, […].
  American journal of respiratory and critical care medicine. 2022 Oct 15;206(8):999-1007.
  

2021

• Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with non-optimal ambient temperatures from 2000 to 2019: a three-stage modelling study.
  Zhao Q, Guo YM, Ye TT, Gasparrini A, Tong SL, Overcenco A, […], Di Ruscio F, […], et al.
  Lancet Planetary Health. 2021;5(7):E415-E25
  

• Geographical Variations of the Minimum Mortality Temperature at a Global Scale: A Multicountry Study.
  Tobías A, Hashizume M, Honda Y, Sera F, Ng CFS, Kim Y, […], Di Ruscio F, […], et al.
  Environmental Epidemiology. 2021;5(5).
  

• Stool dynamics after extrinsic nerve injury during right colectomy with extended D3-mesenterectomy.
  Thorsen Y, Stimec BV, Lindstrom JC, Oresland T, Ignjatovic D.
  Scandinavian Journal of Gastroenterology. 2021;56(7):770-6.
  

• The impact of public health interventions in the Nordic countries during the first year of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and evolution.
  Duchene S, Featherstone L, de Blasio BF, Holmes EC, Bohlin J, Pettersson JHO.
  Eurosurveillance. 2021;26(44).
  

• Hypophosphatemia after high-dose intravenous iron treatment in patients with inflammatory bowel disease: Mechanisms and possible clinical impact.
  Detlie TE, Lindstrom JC, Jahnsen ME, Finnes E, Zoller H, Moum B, et al.
  World Journal of Gastroenterology. 2021;27(17):2039-53.
  

• A cross-sectional analysis of meteorological factors and SARS-CoV-2 transmission in 409 cities across 26 countries.
  Sera F, Armstrong B, Abbott S, Meakin S, O’Reilly K, von Borries R, Schneider R, Royé D, Hashizume M, Pascal M, Tobias A.
  Nature communications. 2021 Oct 13;12(1):5968.
  

• The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change.
  Vicedo-Cabrera AM, Scovronick N, Sera F, Royé D, Schneider R, Tobias A, Astrom C, Guo Y, Honda Y, Hondula DM, Abrutzky R.
  Nature climate change. 2021 Jun;11(6):492-500
  

2020

• Accuracy of breast MRI in patients receiving neoadjuvant endocrine therapy: comprehensive imaging analysis and correlation with clinical and pathological assessments.
  Reis J, Lindstrom JC, Boavida J, Gjesdal KI, Park D, Bahrami N, et al.
  Breast Cancer Research and Treatment. 2020;184(2):407-20.
  

• Sudden emergence of a Neisseria gonorrhoeae Glade with reduced susceptibility to extended-spectrum cephalosporins, Norway.
  Osnes MN, Didelot X, de Korne-Elenbaas J, Alfsnes K, Brynildsrud OB, Syversen G, […], de Blasio BF, […], et al.
  Microbial Genomics. 2020;6(12).
  

• Age, Inflammation, and Disease Location Are Critical Determinants of Intestinal Expression of SARS-CoV-2 Receptor ACE2 and TMPRSS2 in Inflammatory Bowel Disease.
  Nowak JK, Lindstrom JC, Kalla R, Ricanek P, Halfvarson J, Satsangi J.
  Gastroenterology. 2020;159(3):1151.
  

• Model Selection with Lasso in Multi-group Structural Equation Models.
  Lindstrom JC, Dahl FA.
  Structural Equation Modeling-a Multidisciplinary Journal. 2020;27(1):33-42.
  

• Patient affect, physician liking for the patient, physician behavior, and patient reported outcomes: A modeling approach.
  Gulbrandsen P, Lindstrom JC, Finset A, Hall JA.
  Patient Education and Counseling. 2020;103(6):1143-9.
  

• Time-aggregated mobile phone mobility data are sufficient for modelling influenza spread: the case of Bangladesh.
  Engebretsen S, Engo-Monsen K, Aleem MA, Gurley ES, Frigessi A, de Blasio BF.
  Journal of the Royal Society Interface. 2020;17(167).
  

• A simple stochastic model describing genomic evolution over time of GC content in microbial symbionts.
  Bohlin J, Rose B, Brynildsrud O, de Blasio BF.
  Journal of Theoretical Biology. 2020;503.