Modelling for Surveillance and Forecasting

We provide important modelling for the weekly surveillance of respiratory diseases in Norway published in weekly reports. Key contributions include:

Nowcasts of the number of hospital admissions - For key respiratory diseases there can be significant lag in the reporting of hospital admissions, and nowcasts estimate the ‘fully observed’ hospitalisations.
Estimates of trends and near-term forecasts of hospital admissions - We estimate the exponential growth rates and provide one- to four-week ahead forecasts of hospital admissions.
Combining multiple data sources to estimate trends of Covid-19 - Using data from multiple surveillance systems to estimate the overall trend of Covid-19 infections in Norway.

In addtion to providing day-to-day modelling for surveillance activities, we are very interested in open research questions about how best to use statistical methods and modelling techniques to improve infectious disease surveillance.

International forcasting hubs

To support surveillance activities outside of Norway, we contribute weekly forecasts to the following international hubs:

For all forecasts, we combine multiple time-series and mechanistic models using a weighted ensemble approach.